💡 If you haven't already be sure to check out Merge Buenos Aires, which takes place March 24-26 in the Argentine capital. The conference is an exciting opportunity to connect Europe and Latin America through Web3 and will provide a great pulse check on crypto adoption in the region. I'll be attending and I hope to see some of you there as well
Olá pessoal!
For today’s episode I’m joined by Andre Portilho, Head of Digital Assets at BTG Pactual, to discuss the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency landscape over the first two months of 2025.
Recorded at BTG Pactual's studios in São Paulo, this conversation offers valuable insights into market trends, regulatory developments, and the future of digital assets.
Our discussion comes at a pivotal moment for crypto markets, which have experienced significant volatility following the initial euphoria of the Trump administration. Portilho brings a unique perspective as a seasoned trader with deep experience in both traditional and crypto markets, offering a balanced view of recent developments and long-term potential.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's Decoupling from Alts: The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has redirected most new capital inflows toward bitcoin, increasing its market dominance to >60% and creating a separation between bitcoin and altcoins in terms of market performance
Market Correlation Reality: Despite years of discussing "decoupling," crypto remains highly correlated with traditional risk assets, especially during market stress periods. As Portilho notes: "We tend to look just at crypto. But right now, crypto is a part of everything else related to macro and risk assets."
Ethereum's Challenges: The ETH/BTC pair has struggled, reflecting Ethereum's difficulty in establishing a compelling narrative despite achieving its technical scaling goals through L2 solutions. Questions remain about value accrual to the token itself amid fierce competition from competitors like Solana
Brazil's Leadership Position: Brazil stands out globally with exceptional integration between traditional financial institutions and crypto. Four major banks in the country now offer crypto directly to clients—far ahead of Europe or the US.
Regulatory Progress: Brazil's Central Bank has conducted thorough public consultations on crypto regulation, with a framework expected to be implemented in the second half of 2025. While setting a high regulatory bar initially, this collaborative approach positions Brazil well for the future.
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Despite current market challenges, Portilho remains optimistic about the long-term transformation of finance through crypto:
"Every bank will become a crypto bank... the new rails will be this. I'm quite confident of that. We're just beginning in this process. This is not something that will happen in two or three years. This is a movement that will last the next 10-20 years."
For listeners both inside and outside of Brazil, this conversation offers valuable context on where we are in crypto's adoption cycle and how traditional institutions are positioning themselves for the future of finance.
You can connect with Andre on Linkedin
Thanks for watching/listening, and we’ll see you at Merge Buenos Aires in a couple of weeks!
-AWS
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