If you’ve been paying attention to crypto markets the last three months, you’ve heard the narrative that a spot bitcoin ETF approval in the United States is imminent.
Seeking a glimmer of hope amid a brutal winter, crypto markets seized on Blackrock’s blockbuster bitcoin ETF application in June to surmise that, after 10 years of denials, an approval is just around the corner and will inject much-needed life into the currently moribund industry.
This narrative isn’t just a Crypto Twitter play; even Bloomberg’s ETF analysts ratcheted up their probability of a US bitcoin ETF approval this year from 10 percent to 65 percent following the Blackrock news.
After all, the world’s largest asset manager surely wouldn't waste its precious time applying for a bitcoin ETF if they didn’t think it would be approved, right?
Perhaps, but it’s not that simple - as Hashdex’s head of US and Europe Bruno Ramos de Sousa explains on today’s podcast.
Bruno articulates that while some big players have entered the conversation recently, nothing has fundamentally changed that would make the SEC any more likely to approve an ETF filing now versus six months ago.
He argues that the ETF conversation on Crypto Twitter has become irrationally exuberant and that many observers are making assumptions and predictions that aren’t grounded in reality.
As someone who is perhaps overly eager for bullish signals about the crypto market right now, I appreciated Bruno’s dose of realism here.
It’s not all doom and gloom though. Bruno and Hashdex are still super bullish that bitcoin crypto ETFs will eventually become a reality in the US and unlock significant value for the market globally. This might just take longer than we would like.
Have a great week everyone